Before you add either, check five things: pipeline volume, timing, customer fit, stalled deals and selling capacity. Each one leaves signs in data you already have. You need about a week, access to your CRM reports and an hour with each team lead.
Work out the gap in numbers
Start by turning the revenue target into the pipeline it needs. First, agree what the target measures. It could be new-business bookings, annual recurring revenue (ARR) or revenue recognised in the quarter.
These measures can give different answers. A deal won in the last week of a quarter adds its full value to bookings. Most of its revenue may be recognised in later quarters. The worksheet below uses new-business bookings: the value of new deals signed in the quarter.
Next, count the pipeline that can still close this quarter. This includes opportunities already open at the start of the quarter, called opening pipeline. It also includes new opportunities created early enough to close before the quarter ends. Use your typical time from opportunity created to deal won to decide which ones count.
Example (illustrative): a business-to-business software company with a quarterly new-business bookings target. Replace the figures with your own.
| Measure | How to calculate it | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Bookings target | New-business bookings set by leadership for the quarter | $900,000 |
| Average deal size | Bookings won divided by deals won, last two quarters | $30,000 |
| Deals needed | Target divided by average deal size | 30 |
| Win rate | Deals won divided by qualified opportunities closed as won or lost, last two quarters | 25% |
| Qualified opportunities needed | Deals needed divided by win rate | 120 |
| Qualified opportunities available | Opening pipeline plus new opportunities created in time to close this quarter | 70 |
| Gap | Opportunities needed minus opportunities available | 50 |
At the historical win rate and deal size, these 70 opportunities imply about $525,000 of expected bookings, below the $900,000 target. That is 70 multiplied by 25%, or 17.5 deals, at $30,000 each.
Treat this as an estimate of the size of the gap. The team could still close some of it with larger deals, a higher win rate or shorter sales cycles. The worksheet shows how much those would have to change.
Check the assumptions behind the win rate
Work out the win rate from closed opportunities only. Open deals have not been won or lost yet, so including them lowers the rate.
A win rate from closed deals describes opportunities that have already finished. Newly created opportunities may win at a different rate, and some will close after the quarter ends. For a closer estimate, use a cohort win rate. Take the opportunities created in one period and follow them until each one is won or lost.
If your cohorts are still open, say so beside the figure. Then compare the result with the closed-deal rate before you rely on either.
Check for the five common problems
The worksheet shows the size of the gap. The five problems below help explain where it came from. Check each one in turn.
1. The target was set without the funnel
Some targets start from last year's revenue plus a growth figure. Nobody checks whether the funnel can produce it. If the opportunities available were far below the number needed, the target and the pipeline plan were not linked.
Agree how many qualified opportunities the team needs each month. Report against that number every month, beside revenue.
2. Pipeline arrives too late
A deal that takes 90 days to close has to start in the quarter before. When the sales cycle is longer than a few weeks, opportunities created late in a quarter rarely close inside it.
Check the average number of days from opportunity created to deal won. Then look at when this quarter's won deals were created. This shows how far ahead the team needs to build pipeline.
Set pipeline targets one sales cycle ahead of revenue targets. For example, a team with a 90-day cycle builds next quarter's pipeline this quarter.
3. The team sells to poor-fit customers
Win rates fall when the team spends time on buyers it cannot serve well. Compare won and lost deals from the last two quarters. Group them by industry, company size and the problem the buyer wanted to solve.
If one group wins at a much higher rate than the others, point marketing and prospecting at it. Describe your best-fit customer in one paragraph and share it with both teams.
Check fit before you buy more leads. More leads of the wrong type lower the win rate further.
4. Deals stall with no next step
Many deals are never marked as lost. They stop moving and stay in the pipeline. This makes the pipeline look larger than it is.
Run a report of open deals with no logged activity in the last 30 days. Change the number of days to suit your sales cycle. Review each deal with its owner. Agree a dated next step with the buyer, or close the deal as lost.
Closing stale deals lowers the pipeline total. It also gives you a forecast the team can rely on.
5. The team has less selling time than the plan assumes
Revenue plans often assume a full team selling for the whole period. In practice, roles sit empty and new starters take months to ramp up. Admin can also take several hours each week.
Count the selling months you have this quarter. Count each salesperson's months in the role, and reduce them for anyone still ramping up. Then ask the team to log one normal week, split into selling, internal meetings and admin.
If a large share of the week goes on re-entering data or chasing approvals, look at the process. The guide Fix the process before you change the software shows how to trace it.
Find your main problem in five days
Here is an example plan for checking all five problems in one working week.
- Day 1: Agree what the target measures. Fill in the gap worksheet with figures from the last two quarters.
- Day 2: Compare the created date and the won date for each won deal. Work out how far ahead pipeline needs to start.
- Day 3: Compare won and lost deals by industry, company size and buyer problem.
- Day 4: Review stalled deals with each owner. Agree a next step or close them.
- Day 5: Count selling capacity. Rank the five problems by how much of the gap each one appears to explain.
Record what you find in a summary table like this one. Copy it and add your own evidence.
| Problem | What to check | Sign it applies | First change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target set without the funnel | Opportunities needed against opportunities available | Large gap on the worksheet | Set a monthly opportunity target |
| Pipeline arrives too late | Created dates of won deals | Most new opportunities appear late in the quarter | Set pipeline targets one cycle ahead |
| Poor-fit customers | Win rate by segment | One segment wins far more often | Focus prospecting on that segment |
| Stalled deals | Open deals with no recent activity | Many deals with no dated next step | Weekly stalled-deal review |
| Less selling time | Months in role and time logs | Admin takes a large share of the week | Trace and remove the admin steps |
Change one thing at a time, starting with the problem that explains most of the gap. Review each change over a period that suits your sales cycle, so deals affected by it have time to close. For example, a team with a 90-day cycle might review a change to qualification after one quarter. In the meantime, track early measures such as opportunities created and deals moving between stages.